Section 01
The Five Dimensions of This Decision
Retail price must satisfy five distinct criteria simultaneously. A price that scores well on three but fails on two is still the wrong price.
01
Unit Economics
Can this price support positive contribution margin at Year 1 volumes, after all Amazon fees, COGS, and operating costs?
02
Cash Runway
Does Year 1 revenue at this price generate enough cash to fund the Year 2 purchase order without external capital?
03
Brand Signal
Does this price communicate the intended tier — premium everyday, not mass-market, not luxury gifting — to a first-time Amazon buyer?
04
Competitive Position
Where does this price land relative to Graza ($18), Cobram ($22), Kosterina ($32–38), Brightland ($40)? Is the gap defensible?
05
Conversion Rate
At zero brand equity, will a first-time buyer pay this price based on listing copy, photography, and origin story alone?
Section 02
The Four Candidate Price Points
$22
Accessible Premium
For
Lowest friction to convert cold traffic
Competes directly with Cobram Estate ($22)
Highest volume potential
Against
Margin barely positive after Amazon fees + PPC
Below the promotional floor ($22 is already the floor)
Signals mass-market, not single-estate premium
Impossible to raise later without backlash
Viable on volume, fatal for brand. Rules itself out.
$26
Current Plan
For
Above Cobram ($22), below Kosterina ($32)
Premium everyday positioning — repeat purchase friendly
Per-liter ($52) competitive with EU single-estate comparables
Aligned with Section 6.3 pricing rationale
Against
Year 1 cash ends at ~$9K — no error margin
4,000 units non-negotiable; 3,000 units = bridge financing event
Squeezes between Cobram and Kosterina with zero brand equity
Strategically correct. Operationally fragile at Year 1 volume.
Consider
$29
Inflection Point
For
+$3/unit = +$12,000 on 4,000 units — closes the Year 2 funding gap
Still below Kosterina ($32–38) — defensible gap
Per-liter ($58) aligns with Citizens of Soil, PJ Kabos tier
Promotional floor moves to $25 — more room to run offers
Brand story at $29 vs $26 is identical; consumer perception shifts upward
Against
Conversion risk: ~5–8% lower CVR vs $26 (estimate)
Sits in a less clean competitive gap than $26 or $32
The financial bridge between brand aspiration and Year 1 survival.
$32
Premium Tier
For
Best unit economics; Year 1 cash ends ~$27K+
Matches Pasolivo, Kosterina entry level
Most room to run promotions without brand damage
Positions brand clearly in premium-justified quadrant
Against
At zero reviews, $32 is a hard conviction buy for new customers
Brightland ($40) has $21M brand equity behind its premium. You don't yet.
Velocity risk: slow reviews → algorithm doesn't rank → PPC becomes expensive
If conversion is low, PPC spend climbs to compensate — erasing margin gain
Right for Year 2. May be too aggressive for a zero-equity Year 1 launch.
Section 03
Unit Economics by Price Point
Amazon take rate ~23% (referral fee 15% + FBA fulfillment ~$3.22 + storage). COGS (landed, incl. freight, 3PL, FNSKU) ~$8.40/unit. Fixed ops allocated at $2.50/unit at 4,000 units.
| Line Item |
$22 |
$26 |
$29 |
$32 |
| Retail price |
$22.00 | $26.00 | $29.00 | $32.00 |
| Amazon referral fee (15%) |
−$3.30 | −$3.90 | −$4.35 | −$4.80 |
| FBA fulfillment fee (est.) |
−$3.22 | −$3.22 | −$3.22 | −$3.22 |
| FBA storage (allocated) |
−$0.30 | −$0.30 | −$0.30 | −$0.30 |
| Net to seller after Amazon |
$15.18 | $18.58 | $21.13 | $23.68 |
| COGS (landed: oil, bottle, freight, 3PL) |
−$8.40 | −$8.40 | −$8.40 | −$8.40 |
| Gross contribution margin |
$6.78 | $10.18 | $12.73 | $15.28 |
| PPC cost per unit (est., steady state) |
−$4.50 | −$3.60 | −$3.20 | −$3.00 |
| Fixed ops allocated (per unit @ 4K units) |
−$2.50 | −$2.50 | −$2.50 | −$2.50 |
| Net contribution per unit |
−$0.22 |
$4.08 |
$7.03 |
$9.78 |
| Net contribution × 4,000 units |
−$880 |
$16,320 |
$28,120 |
$39,120 |
Note: PPC cost per unit is higher at lower prices because ACoS (ad spend ÷ revenue) represents a larger fraction of a smaller number. At $22 retail, even a 20% ACoS = $4.40/unit in ad spend alone.
Section 04
Weighted Decision Matrix
Each dimension scored 1–5 (5 = best). Weight reflects the relative strategic importance at Year 1 stage.
| Dimension |
Weight |
$22 |
$26 |
$29 |
$32 |
| Unit Economics (contribution margin) |
25% |
1 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
| Cash Runway (Year 1 → Year 2 self-funding) |
25% |
1 |
2 |
4 |
5 |
| Brand Signal (premium tier communication) |
20% |
1 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
| Competitive Gap (defensible vs. neighbors) |
15% |
3 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
| Conversion Rate (zero brand equity, cold traffic) |
15% |
5 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
| Weighted Score (out of 5.0) |
— |
1.90 |
3.00 |
3.65 |
4.05 |
| Adjusted for conversion risk at zero equity |
— |
— |
3.00 |
3.50 |
3.20 |
Conversion risk adjustment: $32 scores highest on economics but lowest on cold-traffic conversion at zero brand equity. The adjustment penalises $32 and slightly penalises $29 to reflect the real-world risk that slow conversion drives up effective PPC cost, partially offsetting the margin advantage.
Section 05
Scenario Calculator
Adjust assumptions to model your scenario
All outputs update in real time
Net / Unit
—
after Amazon + COGS + PPC
Gross Revenue
—
retail × units
Net to Seller
—
after all Amazon fees
Year 1 Contribution
—
before fixed ops
Est. Closing Cash
—
seed $100K − ops costs
Section 06
Decision Flowchart: How to Choose
1
Do you have at least 10 verified reviews before the main PPC push?
You have runway to test $29 or $32. Conversion is supported by social proof.
Launch at $26 or lower. Without reviews, $29+ will kill conversion and inflate ACoS to the point where the margin gain evaporates.
2
Is the Phase 1 proof-of-concept sell-through rate ≥ 10 units/week within 30 days of going live?
Demand signal confirmed. Raise price to $29 before Phase 2 goes live. This is the cheapest and least risky price increase you will ever execute.
Diagnose first: is it a listing problem, a PPC problem, or a price problem? Do not raise price until conversion rate is understood.
3
After Phase 2 launch, is ACoS below 28% at $29 retail?
PPC is efficient. Hold $29. You have cash runway. Do not move to $32 until 50+ reviews.
ACoS is high. Do not raise price — that makes conversion worse, not better. Fix the listing, improve photography, expand keywords first.
4
Have you reached 50+ verified reviews AND top-10 organic ranking in "premium olive oil" or equivalent keyword?
You now have the brand equity foundation to hold $32. Test the move: raise $1 increments over 4 weeks, monitor conversion rate daily. If CVR drops >15%, pause.
Stay at $29. Keep compounding reviews and organic rank. The $32 price is earned, not declared.
5
Have you received at least one editorial placement (food media, chef endorsement, press mention)?
You can now defend $32 and begin DTC at $34. The editorial signal justifies the premium to a first-time buyer in a way that Amazon copy alone cannot.
Continue building. One Bon Appétit mention, one chef Instagram post, one Food52 feature — any of these unlocks the premium tier credibly.
Section 07
Price Adjustment Triggers
Triggers to Raise Price
Reviews ≥ 50 with 4.5+ star average and sustained velocity
ACoS < 24% sustained for 4+ consecutive weeks — organic rank is carrying weight
Top-10 organic ranking on primary keyword without PPC support on that keyword
Editorial placement in nationally distributed food media
Specialty retail placement confirmed — wholesale at 50% of MSRP requires MSRP ≥ $28 to maintain positive margin
Repeat purchase rate > 20% — consumers have validated the product and are returning unprompted
Triggers to Lower Price
Landed cost material increase — if COGS rises >$1.50/unit and cannot be absorbed, a price increase (not decrease) is the response
Prolonged stockout risk — if ACoS exceeds 45% for 8+ weeks, this is a listing/keyword problem, not a price problem. Do not confuse them.
Phase 1 sell-through < 5 units/week at 30 days — run a controlled A/B: lower Phase 1 price $2 for 2 weeks and measure CVR change before concluding price is the issue
No price decrease permitted purely in response to competitor price moves. Brand positioning is not defended by matching Graza's price.
Protocol Conclusion
Recommended Approach
Launch Phase 1 at $26. Raise to $29 when Phase 1 confirms demand. Earn $32 with reviews and editorial.
$26 is not the wrong price — it is the right price for a brand that does not yet have proof of demand. $29 is the right price once proof exists. $32 is the right price once brand equity exists. The mistake is declaring the final destination on day one before you have earned the right to hold it. Price upward moves with the brand. It does not lead it.
One rule that does not change at any price point: No price reduction in response to competitive pressure, demand softness, or Amazon ranking fluctuation. These are marketing and operations problems. The only legitimate triggers for a permanent downward price move are: (a) a COGS decrease that should be shared with the consumer to accelerate volume, or (b) a deliberate repositioning decision made by the founder with full awareness of brand consequences. Neither of these is an emergency response.