-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DOCUMENT CONTROL (HEADER) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Document ID : DARX_MI_DASHBOARD_001 Title : Olive Oil Country-by-Country Dashboard, Snapshot edition, May 10, 2026 Version : 1.1 Status : ACTIVE Classification : Internal, founder and advisory Prepared By : PYB / Daralbeida Reviewed By : (pending) Approved By : (pending) Approval Date : (pending) Owner : PYB / Daralbeida Date Created : 2026-05-10 Last Revised : 2026-06-13 00:00 UTC Update Cycle : Refreshed at each quarter-end and at material price or policy event Next Review Due : 2026-06-30 Annual Review : (pending) Retention : Duration of Year 1 launch program plus seven years Department : MI Style : BPGP Keywords : olive oil, market intelligence, production, pricing, tariff, Section 122, Morocco, Spain, Italy, Tunisia, US imports Related Docs : DARX_MI_DASHBOARD_YEARLY_001 (Annual Edition); DARX_MI_EXEC_001 Supersedes : DARX_MI_DASHBOARD_20260510.txt Superseded By : (none, current version) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OUTLINE -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1. Purpose and Scope 2. Global Picture 3. Spain 3.1 2025/26 Production 3.2 Trend Versus 2024/25 3.3 Origin Price (May 2026) 3.4 US Tariff Exposure 3.5 2026/27 Setup 3.6 Implication For Daralbeida 4. Italy 4.1 2025/26 Production 4.2 Trend Versus 2024/25 4.3 Origin Price (May 2026) 4.4 US Tariff Exposure 4.5 2026/27 Setup 4.6 Implication For Daralbeida 5. Greece 5.1 2025/26 Production 5.2 Trend Versus 2024/25 5.3 Origin Price (May 2026) 5.4 US Tariff Exposure 5.5 2026/27 Setup 5.6 Implication For Daralbeida 6. Tunisia 6.1 Position 6.2 2025/26 Production 6.3 Trend Versus 2024/25 6.4 Origin Price (May 2026) 6.5 US Tariff Exposure 6.6 US Export Momentum 6.7 EU Access 6.8 Implication For Daralbeida 7. Morocco 7.1 Position 7.2 2025/26 Production 7.3 Trend Versus 2024/25 7.4 Domestic Retail (May 2026) 7.5 Farm-Gate Olives 7.6 Bulk Export Indicative 7.7 US Tariff Exposure 7.8 2026/27 Setup 7.9 Implication For Daralbeida 8. Portugal 8.1 2025/26 Production 8.2 Origin Price (May 2026) 8.3 US Tariff Exposure 8.4 Implication For Daralbeida 9. Turkey 9.1 2025/26 Production 9.2 Origin Price 9.3 US Tariff Exposure 9.4 Implication For Daralbeida 10. Argentina and United States 10.1 Argentina 10.2 United States (Mostly California) 10.3 Implication For Daralbeida 11. United States Demand-Side Readout 12. Advisory Rating, Daralbeida Internal View 13. Sources 14. AI Prompts 15. Revision History 16. Acronyms 17. Glossary DOCUMENT CONTROL (FOOTER) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ================================================================================ 1. PURPOSE AND SCOPE ================================================================================ This dashboard provides a snapshot view of the global olive oil market by country as of May 10, 2026, focused on production, pricing, US trade exposure, and the strategic implication for Daralbeida. It is the snapshot edition. For full historical and forward-looking country detail with significant past events and forward calendar, see DARX_MI_DASHBOARD_YEARLY_001 (Annual Edition). The dashboard includes the eight countries that account for over 95% of world olive oil production and the United States, the largest single import market. Crop year 2025/26 is the reference year for all production figures, with some figures still provisional pending IOC final publication. ================================================================================ 2. GLOBAL PICTURE ================================================================================ Indicator Value (2025/26) ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── World production ~3,440,000 t (-4% YoY) World consumption ~3,248,000 t (+1% YoY) EU producing countries ~2,056,000 t (-3% YoY) Non-EU IOC member countries ~1,211,000 t (-6% YoY) Spain share of global supply ~37 to 40% US imports as share of global trade ~32% (largest single buyer) ================================================================================ 3. SPAIN ================================================================================ 3.1 2025/26 PRODUCTION 1,270,000 to 1,371,000 tonnes (provisional). AEMO trimmed late season to approximately 1.2 Mt after rainfall disruption. 3.2 TREND VERSUS 2024/25 Slight decline (down approximately 3 to 10%). 3.3 ORIGIN PRICE (MAY 2026) Conventional EVOO: EUR 4.50 to 5.00/kg. Organic EVOO: approximately EUR 5.50/kg. Pool Red benchmark: approximately EUR 4.60/kg. 3.4 US TARIFF EXPOSURE 10% Section 122 baseline plus approximately USD 0.034/kg MFN plus approximately 5 cents/kg specific duty on certain HTS subheadings. Effective rate in the high teens. 3.5 2026/27 SETUP Soil moisture is good after heavy spring rainfall. Alternate-bearing year suggests moderation rather than rebound. 3.6 IMPLICATION FOR DARALBEIDA Spain is the price reference. As long as Spain holds EUR 4.50/kg or above, Moroccan premium EVOO retains cost-side headroom. ================================================================================ 4. ITALY ================================================================================ 4.1 2025/26 PRODUCTION Approximately 300,000 tonnes (+30% year-on-year). 4.2 TREND VERSUS 2024/25 Rebound, driven by Apulia and Calabria (+30 to 40% in southern regions). 4.3 ORIGIN PRICE (MAY 2026) Conventional EVOO: EUR 6.90/kg. Organic EVOO: approximately EUR 7.00/kg or above. (Down from peak above EUR 9.00/kg in 2024.) 4.4 US TARIFF EXPOSURE 10 to 15% Section 122 plus MFN. Italian-origin EVOO retains the strongest US brand recognition among all imported origins. 4.5 2026/27 SETUP Olive fruit fly pressure is rising in central and northern regions. 4.6 IMPLICATION FOR DARALBEIDA Italy is the brand benchmark Daralbeida competes against in the premium tier. Italian price compression from EUR 9 to 7/kg narrows Daralbeida's relative pricing advantage. ================================================================================ 5. GREECE ================================================================================ 5.1 2025/26 PRODUCTION Approximately 210,000 tonnes (-15% year-on-year). 5.2 TREND VERSUS 2024/25 Decline; localized heat and rainfall issues. 5.3 ORIGIN PRICE (MAY 2026) Chania benchmark: EUR 4.50 to 5.00/kg. 5.4 US TARIFF EXPOSURE 10% Section 122 plus MFN. 5.5 2026/27 SETUP Continued climate volatility risk. 5.6 IMPLICATION FOR DARALBEIDA Limited direct competitive overlap. Greek Kalamata-region brands occupy a smaller-share US presence in the premium tier. ================================================================================ 6. TUNISIA ================================================================================ 6.1 POSITION Key competitive threat in the value tier. 6.2 2025/26 PRODUCTION 450,000 to 500,000 tonnes (very strong). 6.3 TREND VERSUS 2024/25 Excellent rainfall, strong national crop. 6.4 ORIGIN PRICE (MAY 2026) Conventional: EUR 3.40/kg. Organic: EUR 3.85/kg. Undercutting Spain by 25% or more. 6.5 US TARIFF EXPOSURE 10% Section 122 baseline. Was 25 to 28% under IEEPA before SCOTUS struck IEEPA down in February 2026. 6.6 US EXPORT MOMENTUM +61% by value, approximately doubled by volume in 2025. The most aggressive market-share play of any origin in the period. 6.7 EU ACCESS 60,000 t/year duty-free quota; Tunisia pushing for 100,000 t. 6.8 IMPLICATION FOR DARALBEIDA The principal pricing pressure below Daralbeida. Tunisia is going for the value tier. Daralbeida's premium positioning at USD 26 per 0.5L does not compete on price with Tunisia, but the perception gap ("North African origin equals value") needs an active counter-narrative. ================================================================================ 7. MOROCCO ================================================================================ 7.1 POSITION Daralbeida's origin. 7.2 2025/26 PRODUCTION 200,000 to 240,000 tonnes (versus approximately 90,000 tonnes in 2024/25). 7.3 TREND VERSUS 2024/25 Dramatic rebound (+120% to +160%). 7.4 DOMESTIC RETAIL (MAY 2026) 50 to 60 MAD/L (EUR 4.50 to 5.50/L), down from 100 to 120 MAD/L peak in 2024. 7.5 FARM-GATE OLIVES 5 MAD/kg, down from 13 to 15 MAD/kg. 7.6 BULK EXPORT INDICATIVE Premium single-estate organic FOB Casablanca historically USD 8.50 to 14.20/L early-harvest. Commodity bulk EUR 2.50 to 4.50/L. Expect downward pressure on 2026/27 export quotes. 7.7 US TARIFF EXPOSURE MAFTA preference indicator BH delivers 0% MFN, plus 10% Section 122 currently. If Section 122 expires July 24, 2026 without replacement, effective rate reverts to 0%. 7.8 2026/27 SETUP Uncertain. Spring rainfall and labour availability will determine. The next six weeks (flowering window) are decisive. 7.9 IMPLICATION FOR DARALBEIDA Optimal supplier qualification window. Producers have surplus, the US is the priority destination, MAFTA mechanics are functional. Move on FOB quotes and DAB-PROD-ID issuance now. ================================================================================ 8. PORTUGAL ================================================================================ 8.1 2025/26 PRODUCTION 150,000 to 200,000 tonnes (steady). 8.2 ORIGIN PRICE (MAY 2026) Briefly traded below Spanish origin in winter 2025/26; increasingly competitive. 8.3 US TARIFF EXPOSURE 10% Section 122 plus MFN. 8.4 IMPLICATION FOR DARALBEIDA Watch as a future competitive entrant in the US premium tier. Not a Year 1 concern. ================================================================================ 9. TURKEY ================================================================================ 9.1 2025/26 PRODUCTION 150,000 to 170,000 tonnes (down sharply after record 2024/25). 9.2 ORIGIN PRICE Competitive with non-EU origins. 9.3 US TARIFF EXPOSURE 10% Section 122. 9.4 IMPLICATION FOR DARALBEIDA Volume in Turkey contracts in 2025/26, reducing aggregate pressure on the lower end of the US market. ================================================================================ 10. ARGENTINA AND UNITED STATES ================================================================================ 10.1 ARGENTINA Declining production for second straight year. Less competitive in US. 10.2 UNITED STATES (MOSTLY CALIFORNIA) Approximately 5% of US consumption. Cannot scale to meaningfully reduce import dependence. 10.3 IMPLICATION FOR DARALBEIDA No immediate threat. The Argentine drop is mildly supportive to import prices. ================================================================================ 11. UNITED STATES DEMAND-SIDE READOUT ================================================================================ Indicator Value ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── US per-capita consumption ~1.1 kg/person/year (versus Italy 7.4 kg, Spain 7.5 kg), large headroom US import dependence ~95% of consumption imported US imports 2025 (10 months) -22.2% YoY across all origins Italy imports -20.0% Spain imports -23.2% Tunisia imports -25.2% by volume, +61% by value Argentina imports -38.3% US 2025/26 forecast Record consumption despite contraction in import volume (drawdown of stock) The US contraction reflects (a) demand destruction from the 2023/24 price spike, (b) the IEEPA tariff regime that ran through most of 2025, and (c) middle-class purchasing-power pressure. The premium tier has been more resilient than mass-market. ================================================================================ 12. ADVISORY RATING, DARALBEIDA INTERNAL VIEW ================================================================================ Origin Sourcing Pricing Brand Overall Window Pressure Threat Posture ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Morocco OPEN FAVORABLE N/A EXECUTE Spain N/A FIRM PRIMARY BENCHMARK Italy N/A EASING PREMIUM MONITOR Tunisia N/A AGGRESSIVE VALUE-TIER COUNTER-NARR. Greece N/A FIRM NICHE LOW PRIORITY Portugal N/A EASING EMERGING MONITOR Turkey N/A N/A LOW IGNORE Y1 ================================================================================ 13. SOURCES ================================================================================ International Olive Council Statistics Dashboard (production, balances, prices). USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Production Supply & Distribution database. Junta de Andalucia AFORO tables. AICA Spain monthly stocks. ISMEA Italy. ICQRF Frantoio Italia. Olive Oil Times country topics. Certified Origins monthly market reports. Wikifarmer monthly olive oil reports. Tridge Spain market overview 2026. ONAGRI Tunisia. Onssa.gov.ma. Interprolive Morocco. Pool Red origin price benchmark. Oleista origin price tracker. ================================================================================ 14. AI PROMPTS ================================================================================ The following copy-paste prompt regenerates or refreshes this snapshot dashboard from current source data. Replace tokens in [SQUARE_BRACKETS] before running. ================================================================================ START OF PROMPT ================================================================================ You are a market-intelligence analyst for Daralbeida, a premium Moroccan extra virgin olive oil brand. Produce a country-by-country olive oil market snapshot dashboard as of [SNAPSHOT_DATE] for crop year [CROP_YEAR]. Cover the eight origins that account for over 95% of world production (Spain, Italy, Greece, Tunisia, Morocco, Portugal, Turkey, plus Argentina) and the United States as the largest single import market. For each origin report: current production tonnage and year-on-year trend, origin price in [PRICE_CURRENCY], US tariff exposure including Section 122 status, the next crop-year setup, and the strategic implication for Daralbeida. Add a global picture table, a US demand-side readout, and an advisory rating matrix scoring each origin on sourcing window, pricing pressure, brand threat, and overall posture. Cite every figure to its source (IOC, USDA FAS, AICA, ISMEA, ONAGRI, Interprolive, Pool Red, Oleista, and similar). Flag any provisional figure pending IOC final publication. Output in BPGP v3.1 plain-text format. ================================================================================ END OF PROMPT ================================================================================ ================================================================================ 15. REVISION HISTORY ================================================================================ Ver Date Author / Change ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── 1.0 2026-05-10 PYB / Daralbeida. Initial issue (BPGP reformat of DARX-DASHBOARD-COUNTRY-001 dated 2026-05-10). 1.1 2026-06-13 PYB / Daralbeida. Reformatted to BPGP v3.1: added full header and footer control blocks, outline with sub-sections, AI Prompts, Revision History, Acronyms, and Glossary sections; converted tables to U+2500 separators; preserved all figures and source data. ================================================================================ 16. ACRONYMS ================================================================================ AEMO Asociacion Espanola de Municipios del Olivo (Andalusian cooperative federation, late-season production estimator) AFORO Junta de Andalucia's annual production forecast AICA Spanish Olive Oil Industry Authority BH Special Program Indicator for the US-Morocco FTA preference EU European Union EUR Euro (currency) EVOO Extra Virgin Olive Oil FBA Fulfilled by Amazon FOB Free On Board (Incoterm) HTS Harmonized Tariff Schedule (United States) ICQRF Italian Central Inspectorate for Quality Protection and Fraud Repression of Agri-food Products IEEPA International Emergency Economic Powers Act IOC International Olive Council ISMEA Istituto di Servizi per il Mercato Agricolo Alimentare (Italian agri-food market institute) Kg Kilogram L Litre MAD Moroccan Dirham (currency) MAFTA United States-Morocco Free Trade Agreement MFN Most Favored Nation (tariff rate) Mt Million tonnes (metric) ONAGRI National Observatory of Agriculture (Tunisia) ONSSA National Office of Food Safety (Morocco) PDO Protected Designation of Origin PROD-ID Producer identification (DAB-PROD-YYYYMMDD-NNN format) SCOTUS Supreme Court of the United States T Tonnes (metric) US United States USD US Dollar (currency) USDA FAS US Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Y1 Year 1 of Daralbeida launch YoY Year-on-year ================================================================================ 17. GLOSSARY ================================================================================ Alternate-Bearing The biological cycle in which olive trees produce high yields one year and significantly lower yields the following year. See full definition in DARX_MI_EXEC_001 Glossary. EU Duty-Free Quota The annual volume of olive oil imports that may enter the European Union from Tunisia at zero duty under the Association Agreement. The current quota is approximately 60,000 tonnes per year. Volume above the quota is subject to standard EU external tariffs. Pool Red Industry pricing benchmark for Spanish Pool Red Jaen weekly producer prices. Functions as the de facto global olive oil price reference. Single-Estate A provenance claim indicating that all olives in the product originate from a single producer estate, with chain-of-custody documented from grove to bottle. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DOCUMENT CONTROL (FOOTER) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Document ID : DARX_MI_DASHBOARD_001 Version : 1.1 Status : ACTIVE Last Revised : 2026-06-13 00:00 UTC Update Cycle : Refreshed at each quarter-end and at material price or policy event; superseded by DARX_MI_DASHBOARD_YEARLY_001 for full historical and forward-looking analysis Next Review Due : 2026-06-30 Annual Review : (pending) Owner : PYB / Daralbeida Distribution : Internal, founder and advisory Review Triggers : Material change in origin prices, IOC final production publication, Section 122 expiry or replacement (current sunset July 24, 2026), and any quarter-end close. COMPLIANCE : Production figures for 2025/26 are provisional pending final IOC publication. Prices cited reflect May 5 to May 10, 2026 Pool Red, ISMEA, and Oleista data; values must be re-verified before any external use of this dashboard. Tariff rates reflect Section 122 status as of May 10, 2026 and are time-sensitive. Revision History : See Section 15 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- END OF DOCUMENT --------------------------------------------------------------------------------